← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
decks
1
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
7-0-1
overall winrate
93.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
71.6%
avg ELO +10.4 per match
expected value
58.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1441
· range 1441–1441
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1184
Q3 1409
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Slimes | 11.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
