← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.5% | 8 | 3-2-3 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 52.5% | +1.2 |
| Slimes | 11.7% | 9 | 0-9-0 | 0.0% | 15.4% | 20.3% | -13.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 76.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +6.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.3% | -7.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.7% | -12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.9% | -5.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Reduce to Ash. Losers more often ran: Ignite the Soul, Mnemonic Charm, Sudden Steel.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |