← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.5% | 18 | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +0.9 |
| Slimes | 11.7% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 39.1% | -4.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.8% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 36.9% | -7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 44.0% | -2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 32.6% | -11.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 45.0% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 33.2% | -9.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.8% | +11.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 66.9% | +10.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
Decklists · 17 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Freezing Steel, Glacial Evocation, Seaside Ringleader. Losers more often ran: Storm of Thorns, Vaporjet Shield, Glacial Guidance.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freezing Steel | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |