← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Slimes | 11.7% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 36.1% | -6.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.4% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 66.8% | +9.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.8% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 36.3% | -6.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.5% | -7.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Claw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |