← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
decks
2
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
6-7-1
overall winrate
46.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.0%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1344
· median 1344
· range 1205–1482
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1184
Q3 1409
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Slimes | 11.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -24.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.2% | -23.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
