← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Water FractalTier 2
at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
decks
2
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-6-1
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.2%
avg ELO +5.0 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1399
· median 1399
· range 1256–1543
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1184
Q3 1409
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Slimes | 11.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 43.3% | -5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.1% | +17.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.9 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
