Fire ExiaTier 2
at EVO Japan Regional
decks
2
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.1%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1252
· median 1252
· range 1200–1303
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1156
Q3 1313
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.6 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
