Water Crux MageTier 2
at EVO Japan Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -13.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.3% | -8.3 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mind Freeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |