Water AlliesTier 2
at EVO Japan Regional
decks
3
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-8-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1327
· median 1303
· range 1126–1553
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1156
Q3 1313
1688
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.8% | +5.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.1% | -8.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
