Fire Wind VanitasTier 3
at EVO Japan Regional
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1096
· median 1096
· range 1096–1096
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1156
Q3 1313
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Wind Vanitas decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
