Fire Umbra RangerTier 3
at EVO Japan Regional
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.0%
avg ELO -8.6 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1144
· median 1144
· range 1144–1144
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1156
Q3 1313
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
