Water Penguin MillTier 1
at EVO Japan Regional
decks
3
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
9-8-0
overall winrate
52.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.0%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1330
· median 1267
· range 1034–1688
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1156
Q3 1313
1688
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.7% | -4.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.2% | -11.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.3 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
