← Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.0% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 13.2% | 9 | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 72.3% | +10.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.3% | 13 | 7-3-3 | 65.4% | 61.8% | 62.0% | +5.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 75.9% | +13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.8% | -19.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -1.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.2% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Rogue | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.4% | -5.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Flame-Rune Swordsman, Bulwark Sword, Purge in Flames. Losers more often ran: Exorcise Curses, Spirit Blade: Ascension, Resolute Stand.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Soldier | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |