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Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.5% | -4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 13.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 36.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.3% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 55.2% | +2.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 37.2% | -6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.8% | -9.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Rogue | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.4% | -8.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demon's Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Cursebreaker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |