← Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
Water AlliesTier 1
at Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
decks
17
(16.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
103
56-36-11
overall winrate
59.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
56.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1342
· median 1287
· range 1122–1689
(17 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1180
Q3 1399
1702
35% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
12% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 13.2% | 18 | 12-3-3 | 75.0% | 70.5% | 72.9% | +8.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.3% | 16 | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 57.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 12 | 6-4-2 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 58.3% | +3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 10 | 8-1-1 | 85.0% | 75.0% | 75.7% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.5% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 42.7% | -3.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Rogue | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 21.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +17.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.0% | -1.5 |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
Decklists · 17 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 13 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Esteemed Knight, Sword of Seeking. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Song of Nurturing, Seeking Shot.
Song of Frost
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Esteemed Knight
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Life Essence Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Bulwark Sword
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Song of Nurturing
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Seeking Shot
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Quicksilver Grail
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Freezing Hail
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 2.
Tithe Proclamation
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Show all 97 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 77 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -0.46 | 1 | 7 | 5 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.38 | 6 | 1 | 6 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.38 | 1 | 6 | 2 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.31 | 4 | 0 | 5 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.31 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.31 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.31 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.31 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 6 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 9 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.23 | 4 | 7 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 10 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 5 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Fracturize | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 11 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Conceal | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Cascading Round | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Hypothermia | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Shroud in Mist | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.08 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 12 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 12 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.08 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Bubble Mage | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jewel of Enlightenment | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tasershot | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cruiser | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lone Gunslinger | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Drowned Cut | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enchaining Gale | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guarded Dissipation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |