← Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
Wind AlliesTier 2
at Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
decks
14
(13.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
72
26-39-7
overall winrate
41.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.3%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
42.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1265
· median 1263
· range 1071–1438
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1180
Q3 1399
1702
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.0% | 18 | 3-12-3 | 25.0% | 29.5% | 27.1% | -8.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.3% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 48.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.4% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 64.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.1% | -8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 27.7% | -10.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 31.4% | -10.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.1% | +18.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.8% | -16.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.2% | +20.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Heavy Swing, Imperial Recruit, Quicksilver Grail. Losers more often ran: Lorraine, Wandering Warrior, Banner Knight, Lorraine, Blademaster.
Heavy Swing
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Imperial Recruit
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Quicksilver Grail
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Bulwark Sword
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Banner Knight
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Phalanx Captain
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 68 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Swing | +0.71 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.71 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.71 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Displace | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Crusader of Aesa | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Mark of Fervor | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windwalker Boots | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poised Strike | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enchaining Gale | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 |