← Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
decks
2
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
13-5-0
overall winrate
72.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
71.4%
avg ELO +8.4 per match
expected value
58.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1281–1354
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1180
Q3 1399
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 78.3% | +18.1 |
| Wind Allies | 13.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.9% | -18.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.6% | +20.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.6% | +5.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Rogue | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
