← Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
decks
2
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-4-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1228
· median 1228
· range 1105–1351
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1180
Q3 1399
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.9 |
| Wind Allies | 13.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.6% | +8.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
