← 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
Fire AggroTier 1
at 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
decks
19
(7.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
139
74-60-5
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
55.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1272
· median 1272
· range 1088–1486
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1182
Q3 1367
1694
21% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
32% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 25.0% | 39 | 26-13-0 | 66.7% | 65.1% | 62.4% | +4.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.4% | 14 | 6-6-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -3.0 |
| Water Genbu | 8.5% | 15 | 7-7-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.5% | 15 | 4-10-1 | 30.0% | 34.2% | 37.2% | -5.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 10 | 7-3-0 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 61.8% | +5.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 73.8% | +15.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 25.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.3% | +9.2 |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.4% | +3.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -5.1 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.4 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +11.0 |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.6 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.7% | -12.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.9% | -10.7 |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Viridian Protective Trinket, Disenchant. Losers more often ran: Veteran Blazebearer, Nullifying Lantern, Planted Explosive.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Disenchant
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Drawn Blade
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Censer of Restful Peace
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Veteran Blazebearer
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Planted Explosive
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Clumsy Apprentice
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Kingdom Informant
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 81 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 61 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.43 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Kingdom Informant | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Meltdown | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Flashfire Horse | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |