← 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional

Fire SuzakuTier 2

at 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional

decks
17 (6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
138 64-70-4
overall winrate
47.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0% avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
46.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1303 · median 1292 · range 1109–1455 (17 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1182 Q3 1367 1694
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 25.0% 42 17-24-1 41.7% 42.4% 43.5% -2.3
Wind Allies 10.4% 15 6-8-1 43.3% 44.7% 41.4% -3.5
Water Genbu 8.5% 11 5-6-0 45.5% 46.7% 45.5% -2.0
Wind Shadowstrike 8.5% 15 7-7-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.9% -0.9
Fire Aggro 7.3% 10 3-7-0 30.0% 35.7% 38.2% -5.3
Wind Seiryuu 5.8% 11 3-7-1 31.8% 36.7% 37.6% -5.4
Wind Razorgale 3.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.2% +10.8
Fire Exia 2.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 38.6% -11.0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.9% -4.9
Water Allies 1.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 57.2% +7.0
Wind Luxem Zander 1.9% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 64.8% +9.5
Fire Tera Diao Chan 1.5% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 56.3% +6.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.2% 0
Fire Seiryuu 1.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.4% +13.8
Slimes 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.6% +8.9
Wind Astra Cleric 1.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 65.7% +11.7
Fire Crux Mage 0.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.4% +1.3
Fire Umbra Diana 0.8% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.0% +3.2
Wind Byakko 0.8% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.1% +2.1
Fire Luxem Tamer 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.6
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.4% 0
Fire Wind Vanitas 0.4% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.4% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.6% -15.7
Water Diao Chan 0.4% 0
Water Penguin Mill 0.4% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.5% +8.8
Water Tera Cleric 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.7% +15.4
Water Tera Silvie 0.4% 0
Water Umbra Diana 0.4% 0
Wind Beast 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.9% +17.5
Wind Crux Merlin 0.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.5% -5.3
Wind Dawn of Ashes 0.4% 0
Wind Diana 0.4% 0
Wind Exia 0.4% 0
Wind Overlord 0.4% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.4% +13.4
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.4% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.4% 0
Wind Zander 0.4% 0
Decklists · 17 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 3 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Shatter the Brittle +0.67 2 0 1
Censer of Restful Peace -0.67 0 2 1
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.67 2 0 0
Relic of Dancing Embers +0.67 2 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.67 2 0 0
Vermilion Decree +0.33 1 0 2
Staggering Strike -0.33 0 1 1
Pelagic Fatestone -0.33 0 1 1
Expel the Departed -0.33 0 1 1
Ignite Fate -0.33 0 1 1
Cremation Ritual -0.33 0 1 1
Hasty Messenger -0.33 0 1 1
Fated Keepsake +0.33 1 0 1
Crystallized Destiny -0.33 0 1 1
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion -0.33 0 1 2
Nullifying Mirror -0.33 0 1 2
Portentous Tanggu +0.33 1 0 2
Suzaku's Command +0.33 1 0 2
Veteran Blazebearer +0.33 1 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble +0.33 1 0 1
Flamewing Fowl +0.33 1 0 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven +0.33 1 0 0
Arthur, Young Heir +0.33 1 0 1
Demolition +0.33 1 0 0
Backup Charger -0.33 0 1 0
Direwolf Alpha -0.33 0 1 0
Impact Hammer +0.33 1 0 1
Baby Red Slime +0.33 1 0 1
Beastbond Ears -0.33 0 1 0
Resolute Stand -0.33 0 1 0
Jianye, Dawn's Keep -0.33 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking -0.33 0 1 0
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper +0.33 1 0 0
Embersong -0.33 0 1 0
Gloamspire, Black Market -0.33 0 1 0
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion +0.33 1 0 0
Fatestone of Revelations +0.00 1 1 1
Coiled Fatestone +0.00 1 1 1
Creative Shock +0.00 1 1 1
Surging Bolt +0.00 1 1 0
Blazing Throw +0.00 1 1 0
Clumsy Apprentice +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/21372/archetypes/Fire Suzaku