← 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
decks
1
(0.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-2-3
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.9%
avg ELO +5.1 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1356
· median 1356
· range 1356–1356
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1182
Q3 1367
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Genbu | 8.5% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
