← 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
Water AlliesTier 3
at 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 25.0% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 44.5% | -2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 10.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -3.1 |
| Water Genbu | 8.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 29.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.6% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.8% | -7.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dissuading Halt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Eventide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dian Wei, Valorant Fury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slipstream Vault | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intervention | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |