← 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
decks
22
(8.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
153
75-49-29
overall winrate
58.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.6%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
54.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1305
· median 1269
· range 1093–1694
(22 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1182
Q3 1367
1694
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
27% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 25.0% | 46 | 20-20-6 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.4% | 18 | 5-7-6 | 44.4% | 45.5% | 46.6% | -1.3 |
| Water Genbu | 8.5% | 14 | 5-4-5 | 53.6% | 52.8% | 56.2% | +2.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.3% | 15 | 10-4-1 | 70.0% | 65.8% | 62.8% | +5.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 15 | 7-7-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 6 | 3-1-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +4.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.5% | 7 | 4-0-3 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 60.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 61.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 66.6% | +12.4 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 42.2% | -5.8 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.3 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.4% | +9.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
Decklists · 22 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 11 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Blackmarket Broker, Aesan Protector, Arrow Trap. Losers more often ran: Stifling Trap, Viridian Protective Trinket, Swift Recruit.
Blackmarket Broker
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Arrow Trap
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Swift Recruit
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Dungeon Guide
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.7.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Mastermind Scheme
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 3.1.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 60 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.55 | 8 | 2 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.36 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.36 | 1 | 5 | 5 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.36 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.27 | 7 | 4 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.27 | 0 | 3 | 8 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.27 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.27 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 9 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.18 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 9 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.18 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.18 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.18 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.18 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Diablerie | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.09 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.09 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.09 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.09 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Zephyr | -0.09 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloaked Executioner | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swerving Spring | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Provoking Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |