← 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional

Fire Tera Diao ChanTier 3

at 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional

decks
4 (1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24 8-15-1
overall winrate
35.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.5% avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
41.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1264 · median 1273 · range 1099–1410 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1182 Q3 1367 1694
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 25.0% 7 3-4-0 42.9% 45.5% 45.1% -2.5
Wind Allies 10.4% 4 0-3-1 12.5% 31.2% 33.8% -10.4
Water Genbu 8.5% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 29.3% -15.5
Wind Shadowstrike 8.5% 0
Fire Aggro 7.3% 0
Fire Suzaku 6.5% 0
Wind Seiryuu 5.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.0% -11.2
Wind Razorgale 3.5% 0
Fire Exia 2.3% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.3% +11.7
Water Allies 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.5% +23.3
Wind Luxem Zander 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.0% -9.6
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.2% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.2% 0
Fire Seiryuu 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.6% -16.6
Slimes 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.9% +6.2
Wind Astra Cleric 1.2% 0
Fire Crux Mage 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.7% -13.3
Fire Umbra Diana 0.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.3% +16.5
Water Astra Cleric 0.8% 0
Wind Byakko 0.8% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.7% -8.4
Fire Luxem Tamer 0.4% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.4% 0
Fire Wind Vanitas 0.4% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.4% 0
Water Diao Chan 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.0% +12.8
Water Penguin Mill 0.4% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.4% 0
Water Tera Silvie 0.4% 0
Water Umbra Diana 0.4% 0
Wind Beast 0.4% 0
Wind Crux Merlin 0.4% 0
Wind Dawn of Ashes 0.4% 0
Wind Diana 0.4% 0
Wind Exia 0.4% 0
Wind Overlord 0.4% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 0.4% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.4% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.4% 0
Wind Zander 0.4% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Tera Diao Chan decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Fragmented Spirit of Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Glowering Conflagration +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Dungeon Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven +1.00 1 0 0
Mystic Purifier +1.00 1 0 0
Ignite Fate -1.00 0 1 0
Allied Warpriestess +1.00 1 0 0
Creative Shock +1.00 1 0 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Sigil of Budding Embers +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Firebloom Flourish +1.00 1 0 0
Fanatical Devotee -1.00 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Art of War -1.00 0 1 0
Annul Spell -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/21372/archetypes/Fire Tera Diao Chan