← Dragon Nest x Home-run Abyssal Heaven Season Regional-Hong Kong
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Dragon Nest x Home-run Abyssal Heaven Season Regional-Hong Kong
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 30.0% | 26 | 10-16-0 | 38.5% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -3.4 |
| Water Genbu | 9.0% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 51.4% | +0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.9% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.4% | +2.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.8% | -5.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.6 |
| Fire Byakko | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Baby Red Slime. Losers more often ran: Mark the Target.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dire Requiem | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |