← Dragon Nest x Home-run Abyssal Heaven Season Regional-Hong Kong
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at Dragon Nest x Home-run Abyssal Heaven Season Regional-Hong Kong
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 30.0% | 16 | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 36.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 48.6% | -0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.8% | -4.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Think Deep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Genbu's Command | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Moontide Illusionist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |