← Dragon Nest x Home-run Abyssal Heaven Season Regional-Hong Kong
Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Dragon Nest x Home-run Abyssal Heaven Season Regional-Hong Kong
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-1-1
overall winrate
78.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.7%
avg ELO +6.9 per match
expected value
59.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1507
· median 1507
· range 1507–1507
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1059
Q1 1180
Q3 1350
1688
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 30.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.9% | +8.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Genbu | 9.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
