← Dragon Nest x Home-run Abyssal Heaven Season Regional-Hong Kong
Water FractalTier 1
at Dragon Nest x Home-run Abyssal Heaven Season Regional-Hong Kong
decks
30
(30.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
153
86-58-9
overall winrate
59.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.5%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1278
· median 1267
· range 1077–1574
(30 pilots with an ELO rating)
1059
Q1 1180
Q3 1350
1688
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 26 | 16-10-0 | 61.5% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +3.4 |
| Water Genbu | 9.0% | 16 | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 63.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 20 | 11-7-2 | 60.0% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +3.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 15 | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 47.4% | 51.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 8 | 7-1-0 | 87.5% | 75.0% | 74.8% | +11.9 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.0% | 11 | 7-4-0 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +4.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 53.5% | +1.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 51.0% | +0.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.7% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -6.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 2.0% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 78.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.9% | -5.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.7% | -3.1 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.1% | -8.1 |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
Decklists · 30 from this event
The 30 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 26 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 6 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Burst Asunder, Nullifying Mirror. Losers more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Unstable Fractal, Fire Resonance Bauble.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 26 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 20.
Burst Asunder
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.8.
Of 26 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 19.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 26 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 20.
Frostnip Pirouette
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 26 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 15.
Banned
Lost in Thought
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 26 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 15.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 26 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 18.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 26 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 15.
Unstable Fractal
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 26 mirrors: the loser ran more in
14, the winner ran more in 8,
both ran the same in 4.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 26 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 14.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 26 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 16.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 26 mirrors: the loser ran more in
12, the winner ran more in 9,
both ran the same in 5.
Fractal of Refreshment
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 3.5.
Of 26 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 13.
Show all 85 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 65 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.27 | 2 | 9 | 12 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.23 | 6 | 0 | 20 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.23 | 8 | 14 | 3 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.19 | 6 | 1 | 19 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.15 | 5 | 1 | 18 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.15 | 3 | 7 | 11 | |
| Frostbind | -0.12 | 9 | 12 | 5 | |
| Fracturize | +0.12 | 4 | 1 | 21 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | +0.12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.12 | 5 | 8 | 13 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.12 | 7 | 10 | 2 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 16 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.08 | 3 | 5 | 12 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.08 | 10 | 8 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.08 | 4 | 2 | 18 | |
| Fractal of Snow | -0.08 | 7 | 9 | 10 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.08 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.08 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.08 | 5 | 7 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.08 | 6 | 8 | 3 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.08 | 4 | 6 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.04 | 6 | 5 | 15 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.04 | 8 | 7 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.04 | 5 | 6 | 12 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.04 | 8 | 7 | 2 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.04 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.04 | 5 | 4 | 7 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Resonance | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.04 | 5 | 6 | 5 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.04 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.04 | 7 | 6 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 22 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 24 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 24 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 22 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 22 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 14 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 24 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 24 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 23 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Kingdom's Divide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hairpin of Transience | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ripples of Atrophy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Idyll Corsage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staff of Blossoming Will | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloom: Summer's Glow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kaleidoscope Barrette | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ceasing Edict | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |