EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Regional - CM Dunedin. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Fractal

55.9%

5.7% share · 10 matches

8.6% share · 18 matches

11.4% share · 19 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Shadowstrike	3	8.6%	18	63.9%	55.0%	56.2%	53.1%	1417	↑ top
2	Water Fractal	2	5.7%	10	70.0%	49.1%	55.9%	49.5%	1493	↑ top
3	Wind Allies	4	11.4%	19	63.2%	68.0%	53.2%	55.5%	1287	—
4	Fire Exia	1	2.9%	7	57.1%	48.7%	51.8%	51.2%	1408	↑ top
5	Wind Luxem Zander	1	2.9%	6	58.3%	32.1%	51.1%	43.5%	1513	↑ top
6	Fire Aggro	5	14.3%	25	56.0%	57.6%	50.8%	51.4%	1251	—
7	Wind Astra Cleric	3	8.6%	17	58.8%	48.4%	50.5%	48.0%	1305	—
8	Wind Luxem Assassin	2	5.7%	12	58.3%	54.2%	49.4%	49.1%	1356	↑ top
9	Fire Arcane	3	8.6%	18	50.0%	59.6%	48.6%	52.1%	1260	—
10	Water Allies	1	2.9%	7	57.1%	56.1%	48.0%	48.7%	1151	↓ low
11	Water Overlord	1	2.9%	7	57.1%	56.1%	48.0%	48.7%	1151	↓ low
12	Wind Razorgale	3	8.6%	15	46.7%	48.1%	47.3%	47.3%	1312	—
13	Fire Suzaku	3	8.6%	15	33.3%	43.4%	47.1%	48.6%	1221	↓ low
14	Wind Slice & Dice	1	2.9%	6	33.3%	38.1%	45.4%	44.3%	1255	—
15	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	2.9%	5	20.0%	37.3%	43.8%	45.0%	1316	—
16	Fire Crux Mage	1	2.9%	7	28.6%	42.8%	43.6%	45.1%	1168	↓ low
17	Water Genbu	1	2.9%	6	0.0%	27.9%	37.8%	41.4%	1022	↓ low
18	Water Triskit	1	2.9%	6	0.0%	27.9%	37.8%	41.4%	1022	↓ low