Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Michigan HVN Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 52.6% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 44.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 34.3% | -10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Revelations | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Craggy Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |