Michigan HVN Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Fractal	Tier 1	15	18.3%	48-33-4	58.8%	51.9%	53.4%	50.2%	1333	—
2		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	10	12.2%	30-28-3	51.6%	52.6%	50.6%	51.4%	1278	—
3		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	8	9.8%	25-20-7	54.8%	51.1%	52.8%	51.4%	1336	—
4		Wind Allies	Tier 1	7	8.5%	22-18-4	54.5%	59.3%	50.7%	54.4%	1353	↑ top
5		Water Genbu	Tier 2	6	7.3%	15-24-2	39.0%	39.5%	42.5%	42.8%	1316	—
6		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	5	6.1%	15-18-0	45.5%	53.8%	46.2%	51.0%	1214	↓ low
7		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	3	3.7%	9-11-2	45.5%	44.7%	47.0%	46.3%	1234	—
8		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 2	3	3.7%	14-7-0	66.7%	57.3%	52.5%	51.3%	1341	—
9		Water Allies	Tier 2	2	2.4%	5-6-0	45.5%	49.1%	48.9%	49.3%	1181	↓ low
10		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	2	2.4%	8-0-6	78.6%	54.7%	58.9%	51.6%	1561	↑ top
11		Water Overlord	Tier 2	2	2.4%	10-1-3	82.1%	71.7%	57.1%	57.6%	1243	—
12		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	2	2.4%	3-5-4	41.7%	39.1%	47.2%	46.0%	1286	—
13		Wind Luxem Zander	Tier 2	2	2.4%	5-7-3	43.3%	40.9%	45.2%	44.5%	1390	↑ top
14		Wind Slice & Dice	Tier 2	2	2.4%	6-5-3	53.6%	66.6%	50.1%	56.8%	1249	—
15		Dawn of Ashes	Tier 3	1	1.2%	1-5-0	16.7%	40.4%	44.3%	48.3%	959	↓ low
16		Fire Arcane	Tier 3	1	1.2%	0-7-0	0.0%	18.8%	40.0%	40.0%	1106	↓ low
17		Fire Cinderbloom Combo	Tier 3	1	1.2%	3-5-0	37.5%	41.1%	41.9%	42.4%	1259	—
18		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 2	1	1.2%	3-4-0	42.9%	55.9%	50.3%	54.2%	1160	↓ low
19		Fire Kongming	Tier 3	1	1.2%	2-5-0	28.6%	43.7%	41.5%	46.2%	1285	—
20		Fire Overlord	Tier 3	1	1.2%	2-4-0	33.3%	46.7%	46.1%	48.7%	1153	↓ low
21		Fire Seiryuu	Tier 3	1	1.2%	1-6-0	14.3%	30.9%	39.4%	42.8%	1056	↓ low
22		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 3	1	1.2%	2-4-0	33.3%	47.1%	46.0%	48.5%	1045	↓ low
23		Seiryuu	Tier 3	1	1.2%	2-4-0	33.3%	42.5%	42.7%	45.1%	971	↓ low
24		Slimes	Tier 3	1	1.2%	3-4-0	42.9%	51.2%	47.0%	49.1%	1196	↓ low
25		Water Dawn of Ashes	Tier 2	1	1.2%	3-4-0	42.9%	47.9%	49.2%	51.6%	1224	—
26		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 2	1	1.2%	4-3-0	57.1%	40.2%	49.7%	44.4%	1340	—
27		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 3	1	1.2%	3-4-0	42.9%	56.0%	44.2%	49.5%	1245	—
28		Water Umbra Ranger	Tier 3	1	1.2%	1-3-0	25.0%	38.2%	44.4%	44.2%	1159	↓ low
29		Wind Umbra Tristan	Tier 2	1	1.2%	2-2-3	50.0%	56.7%	52.9%	53.5%	1192	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Fractal 15 decks · 18.3%
• Fire Aggro 10 decks · 12.2%
• Wind Shadowstrike 8 decks · 9.8%
• Wind Allies 7 decks · 8.5%
• Water Genbu 6 decks · 7.3%
• Fire Suzaku 5 decks · 6.1%
• Fire Crux Mage 3 decks · 3.7%
• Wind Seiryuu 3 decks · 3.7%
• Water Allies 2 decks · 2.4%
• Water Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 2.4%
• Water Overlord 2 decks · 2.4%
• Wind Astra Cleric 2 decks · 2.4%
• Wind Luxem Zander 2 decks · 2.4%
• Wind Slice & Dice 2 decks · 2.4%
• Dawn of Ashes 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Kongming 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Overlord 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Seiryuu 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 1.2%
• Seiryuu 1 deck · 1.2%
• Slimes 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Dawn of Ashes 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Penguin Mill 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 1.2%
• Wind Umbra Tristan 1 deck · 1.2%