Water FractalTier 1
at Michigan HVN Regionals
decks
15
(18.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
85
48-33-4
overall winrate
58.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
53.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1333
· median 1340
· range 1122–1538
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1166
Q3 1385
1750
47% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 42.4% | -3.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 52.5% | +1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 36.4% | -5.6 |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 10 | 8-2-0 | 80.0% | 71.4% | 65.0% | +6.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.1% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 47.4% | -1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.6% | +8.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.5% | +1.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Overlord | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -3.8 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Overlord | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.4% | +6.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
Decklists · 15 from this event
The 15 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 9 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Water Resonance Bauble, Fractal of Refreshment. Losers more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Nullifying Lantern, Frostbind.
Song of Frost
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Fractal of Refreshment
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Extricating Touch
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Censer of Restful Peace
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Awakened Deacon
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.44 | 0 | 4 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.44 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| Frostbind | -0.33 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Barter Herbs | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Maiden of Shimmering Air | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sudden Snow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |