Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Michigan HVN Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.3% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 47.5% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.4% | +6.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -2.9 |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 65.7% | +10.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.0% | -6.8 |
| Water Overlord | 2.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Seiryuu | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +7.1 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |