Wind SeiryuuTier 2
at Michigan HVN Regionals
decks
3
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
14-7-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.3%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341
· median 1340
· range 1301–1383
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1166
Q3 1385
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.4% | +13.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.9% | -7.8 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
