Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Michigan HVN Regionals
decks
2
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
8-0-6
overall winrate
78.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
58.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1561
· median 1561
· range 1540–1582
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1166
Q3 1385
1750
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 61.6% | +8.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.0% | +6.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
