Wind AlliesTier 1
at Michigan HVN Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.3% | 14 | 7-6-1 | 53.6% | 52.8% | 63.6% | +5.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 43.4% | -3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +2.9 |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.9% | +16.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Water Overlord | 2.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.2% | -6.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 74 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 74 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Concealed Marksman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Provoking Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Galewind Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Marksman Captain | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Winbless Rangefinder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Usurp the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Landscape Corsair | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Axis Gale Scholar | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bagua of Cardinal Fate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jadelight Protector | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |