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Wind AlliesTier 1

at Michigan HVN Regionals

decks
7 (8.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
44 22-18-4
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.3% avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
50.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1353 · median 1356 · range 1156–1590 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
959 Q1 1166 Q3 1385 1750
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 14% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 18.3% 14 7-6-1 53.6% 52.8% 63.6% +5.6
Fire Aggro 12.2% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 43.4% -3.5
Wind Shadowstrike 9.8% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 55.1% +2.9
Water Genbu 7.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.9% +16.2
Fire Suzaku 6.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.3% -14.1
Fire Crux Mage 3.7% 0
Wind Seiryuu 3.7% 0
Water Allies 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.2
Water Luxem Assassin 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.1% -6.3
Water Overlord 2.4% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 41.2% -6.6
Wind Astra Cleric 2.4% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.9% +20.6
Wind Slice & Dice 2.4% 0
Dawn of Ashes 1.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 60.8% +10.3
Fire Arcane 1.2% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.2% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.1% -14.3
Fire Kongming 1.2% 0
Fire Overlord 1.2% 0
Fire Seiryuu 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.5% +19.9
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.2% 0
Seiryuu 1.2% 0
Slimes 1.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.9% +12.4
Water Dawn of Ashes 1.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.4% +0.4
Water Penguin Mill 1.2% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.4
Water Umbra Ranger 1.2% 0
Wind Umbra Tristan 1.2% 0
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 74 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 74 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Huaji of Heaven's Rise +1.00 2 0 0
Aesan Protector +1.00 2 0 0
Evasive Maneuvers +1.00 2 0 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 2 0 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +1.00 2 0 0
Shangxiang, Fierce Princess +1.00 2 0 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 2 0 0
Rallied Advance +1.00 2 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 2 0 0
Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster +1.00 2 0 0
Windmill Engineer -1.00 0 2 0
Hurricane Sweep +1.00 2 0 0
Song of Nurturing +1.00 2 0 0
Second Wind +1.00 2 0 0
Verdigris Decree -1.00 0 2 0
Lorraine, Blademaster +1.00 2 0 0
Brackish Lutist +1.00 2 0 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +1.00 2 0 0
Scatter Essence -1.00 0 2 0
Dilu, Auspicious Charger -0.50 0 1 0
Perse, Relentless Raptor -0.50 0 1 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon +0.50 1 0 1
Concealed Marksman -0.50 0 1 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +0.50 1 0 1
Heavy Swing -0.50 0 1 0
Provoking Stand -0.50 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant +0.50 1 0 1
Veiling Breeze +0.50 1 0 1
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper -0.50 0 1 0
Stifling Trap +0.50 1 0 1
Tonoris, Might of Humanity -0.50 0 1 0
Coronation Ceremony +0.50 1 0 1
Portentous Tanggu -0.50 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs +0.50 1 0 1
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary -0.50 0 1 0
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar -0.50 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.50 0 1 1
Fast Cure -0.50 0 1 0
Parcenet, Royal Maid -0.50 0 1 0
Eternal Magistrate +0.50 1 0 1
Ornamental Greatsword +0.50 1 0 1
Galewind Scout -0.50 0 1 0
Bulwark Sword -0.50 0 1 0
Marksman Captain -0.50 0 1 0
Swift Recruit -0.50 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +0.50 1 0 1
Oath of the Sakura -0.50 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.50 0 1 1
Censer of Restful Peace +0.50 1 0 1
Winbless Rangefinder -0.50 0 1 0
Prototype Pistol -0.50 0 1 0
Windpiercer -0.50 0 1 0
Skirting Step -0.50 0 1 0
Displace -0.50 0 1 0
Windrider Vanguard +0.50 1 0 0
Kongming, Wayward Maven -0.50 0 1 0
Usurp the Winds -0.50 0 1 0
Kongming, Ascetic Vice -0.50 0 1 0
Ardent Cloudstriker -0.50 0 1 0
Incapacitate +0.50 1 0 0
Landscape Corsair -0.50 0 1 0
Acolyte of Cultivation -0.50 0 1 0
Unbroken Mustang -0.50 0 1 0
Mystic Purifier -0.50 0 1 0
Fan of Seven Debts -0.50 0 1 0
Tempest Downfall -0.50 0 1 0
Axis Gale Scholar -0.50 0 1 0
Bagua of Cardinal Fate -0.50 0 1 0
Jadelight Protector -0.50 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter -0.50 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -0.50 0 1 0
Reclaim +0.00 1 1 0
Zephyr +0.00 1 1 0
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/21899/archetypes/Wind Allies