Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Michigan HVN Regionals
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.9%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1224
· median 1224
· range 1224–1224
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1166
Q3 1385
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
