← Yeti Gaming HVN Online Regional #1
Fire AggroTier 2
at Yeti Gaming HVN Online Regional #1
decks
18
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
93
41-49-3
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1284
· median 1237
· range 1010–1560
(18 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1239
Q3 1441
1750
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.7% | 18 | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 38.6% | 44.2% | -2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.4% | -1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 11 | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 41.9% | -3.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.8% | 10 | 8-2-0 | 80.0% | 71.4% | 59.0% | +4.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 52.3% | +1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.1% | -8.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.5% | -3.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 40.3% | -6.2 |
| Water Overlord | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tera Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.8 |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -2.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 18 from this event
The 18 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Captivating Cutthroat, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa. Losers more often ran: Corhazi Courier, Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion, Kingdom Informant.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Captivating Cutthroat
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Clumsy Apprentice
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Corhazi Courier
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Kingdom Informant
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Dazzling Courtesan
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 92 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 72 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.43 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Kingdom Informant | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swerving Spring | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Polkhawk, Bombastic Shot | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focusing Round | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Meltdown | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ignited Stab | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |