← Yeti Gaming HVN Online Regional #1
Water FractalTier 1
at Yeti Gaming HVN Online Regional #1
decks
32
(18.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
163
75-64-24
overall winrate
53.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.8%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1371
· median 1382
· range 1131–1656
(32 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1239
Q3 1441
1750
34% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.5% | 18 | 11-6-1 | 63.9% | 61.4% | 55.8% | +2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 20 | 3-16-1 | 17.5% | 22.9% | 40.5% | -3.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 20 | 8-9-3 | 47.5% | 47.9% | 49.0% | -0.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.8% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 51.9% | +0.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 11 | 4-3-4 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 54.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 8 | 1-4-3 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 43.9% | -2.9 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.9% | 11 | 4-5-2 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 48.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 56.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Water Overlord | 2.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.9% | +8.1 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 56.6% | +3.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 49.2% | -0.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.7% | +8.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tera Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.3% | +0.9 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
Decklists · 32 from this event
The 32 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 22 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 5 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Frozen Dismissal, Captivating Opulence, Awakened Deacon. Losers more often ran: Torpid Fractal, Fractal of Intrusion, Fast Cure.
Frozen Dismissal
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 11.
Captivating Opulence
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 17.
Awakened Deacon
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 11.
Censer of Restful Peace
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 11.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 12.
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 16.
Torpid Fractal
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 12.
Fractal of Intrusion
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 7.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 11.
Fractal of Refreshment
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 9.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 17.
Expel the Departed
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 15.
Show all 84 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 64 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.32 | 9 | 2 | 3 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.27 | 2 | 8 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.23 | 5 | 10 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 19 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.14 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.14 | 4 | 7 | 11 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.14 | 5 | 8 | 9 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.14 | 3 | 0 | 19 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 1 | 4 | 14 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.14 | 7 | 4 | 10 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.14 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 20 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.09 | 6 | 4 | 9 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.09 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 20 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 20 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.09 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.09 | 6 | 8 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.09 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.09 | 2 | 4 | 16 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.09 | 4 | 2 | 12 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 20 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.09 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | +0.09 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.09 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Art of War | +0.09 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shroud in Mist | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fishing Accident | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.05 | 7 | 6 | 5 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.05 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.05 | 6 | 7 | 9 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 19 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.05 | 6 | 5 | 7 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.05 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.05 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.05 | 7 | 8 | 7 | |
| Disenchant | -0.05 | 5 | 6 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.05 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 18 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 18 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |