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Water GenbuTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.7% | 11 | 3-4-4 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 45.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.7% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 44.1% | -2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 41.8% | -6.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.7% | +1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 58.5% | +6.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.6% | -9.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Overlord | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tera Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.6 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |