← Yeti Gaming HVN Online Regional #1
Water Dawn of AshesTier 3
at Yeti Gaming HVN Online Regional #1
decks
3
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
4-8-2
overall winrate
35.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1382
· median 1430
· range 1201–1517
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1239
Q3 1441
1750
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tera Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
