← Yeti Gaming HVN Online Regional #1

Fire SuzakuTier 2

at Yeti Gaming HVN Online Regional #1

decks
10 (5.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
71 29-39-3
overall winrate
43.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4% avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
44.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1336 · median 1319 · range 1201–1548 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
994 Q1 1239 Q3 1441 1750
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 10% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 18.7% 11 5-6-0 45.5% 46.7% 48.1% -0.9
Fire Aggro 10.5% 10 2-8-0 20.0% 28.6% 41.0% -4.0
Wind Shadowstrike 9.4% 6 2-4-0 33.3% 40.0% 46.8% -1.7
Wind Allies 8.2% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 45.6% -2.8
Water Genbu 5.8% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 47.3% -1.7
Wind Seiryuu 4.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 58.5% +8.2
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 2.9% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 47.8% -1.6
Fire Exia 2.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.5% -5.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.9% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.4% -2.7
Water Luxem Assassin 2.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.0% +4.8
Water Overlord 2.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.3% -2.7
Water Allies 1.8% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 55.5% +4.1
Water Dawn of Ashes 1.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.2
Wind Razorgale 1.8% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 47.4% -2.5
Wind Slice & Dice 1.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 57.1% +6.8
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.2% 0
Fire Ravishing Mill 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.7% -3.7
Slimes 1.2% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.2% +5.1
Wind Astra Cleric 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.4% -4.1
Wind Silvie 1.2% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 59.7% +7.2
Fire Arcane 0.6% 0
Fire Crux Mage 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.6% +10.6
Fire Seiryuu 0.6% 0
Fire Slimes 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.6% -7.0
Fire Tera Mage 0.6% 0
Tera Tamer 0.6% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.6% 0
Water Silvie 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.3% +3.6
Water Tera Mage 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.8% -6.8
Wind Arcane 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.5
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.6% 0
Wind Exia 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.5% -5.5
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.6% 0
Wind Luxem Tamer 0.6% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 0.6% 0
Wind Tera Mage 0.6% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 47.4% -2.5
Wind Umbra Diana 0.6% 0
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.6% 0
Wind Vanitas 0.6% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.3% +0.3
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Vermilion Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Veteran Blazebearer +1.00 1 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Under Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Spurn to Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Fatestone of Unrelenting +1.00 1 0 0
Relic of Dancing Embers -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Out -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking -1.00 0 1 0
Mark the Target -1.00 0 1 0
Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored +1.00 1 0 0
Meltdown -1.00 0 1 0
Creative Shock -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Spark Alight +1.00 1 0 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Throw -1.00 0 1 0
Shatter the Brittle +1.00 1 0 0
Disenchant -1.00 0 1 0
Suzaku's Command -1.00 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Beastbond Paws -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Coiled Fatestone +1.00 1 0 0
Flamewing Fowl -1.00 0 1 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven +1.00 1 0 0
Forgelight Blade -1.00 0 1 0
Expel the Departed +1.00 1 0 0
Embertail Squirrel -1.00 0 1 0
Surging Bolt -1.00 0 1 0
Ignite Fate -1.00 0 1 0
Arthur, Young Heir +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Bombs +1.00 1 0 0
Oppressive Presence -1.00 0 1 0
Ignite the Soul -1.00 0 1 0
Broken Promises -1.00 0 1 0
Fated Keepsake +1.00 1 0 0
Blinding Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Flamewreath Call +1.00 1 0 0
Lavaplume Fatestone +1.00 1 0 0
Varuckan Acolyte -1.00 0 1 0
Clumsy Apprentice +1.00 1 0 0
Journey's Beginning -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Dire Requiem +1.00 1 0 0
Impact Hammer +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/21905/archetypes/Fire Suzaku