EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Illusive Webcam Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 7 | 13.2% | 35 | 67.1% | 58.1% | 53.9% | 51.9% | 1384 | — |
| 2 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 75.0% | 52.3% | 53.5% | 50.1% | 1652 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 12 | 22.6% | 55 | 57.3% | 51.8% | 52.9% | 50.8% | 1418 | — |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 11.3% | 30 | 53.3% | 48.8% | 51.9% | 49.7% | 1424 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 54.2% | 51.1% | 50.9% | 50.3% | 1373 | — |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.9% | 50.0% | 47.8% | 1750 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 6 | 11.3% | 26 | 51.9% | 52.2% | 48.4% | 50.1% | 1300 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2 | 3.8% | 10 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 48.1% | 49.6% | 1458 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | 49.7% | 1331 | — |
| 10 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 3 | 16.7% | 42.0% | 46.7% | 47.9% | 1280 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 5.7% | 18 | 44.4% | 50.7% | 45.6% | 49.3% | 1347 | — |
| 12 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.9% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.0% | 45.6% | 48.1% | 1469 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.3% | 45.5% | 48.0% | 1295 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 3.8% | 13 | 53.8% | 51.7% | 45.2% | 48.0% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 1.9% | 3 | 16.7% | 40.8% | 44.0% | 45.8% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 3 | 16.7% | 40.8% | 44.0% | 45.8% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Water Allies | 2 | 3.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.4% | 40.9% | 47.4% | 1317 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 45.5% | 40.7% | 47.0% | 1316 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Slimes | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 0.0% | 40.6% | 40.0% | 46.8% | 1142 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.0% | 47.7% | 40.0% | 47.7% | 1284 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Slice & Dice | 1 | 1.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 45.5% | 40.0% | 48.2% | 1084 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 1.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 39.8% | 40.0% | 43.9% | 1311 | ↓ low |