← FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 3 5.7% 15 63.3% 62.2% 55.8% 57.3% 1287
2 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 1.9% 6 66.7% 65.1% 55.5% 58.7% 1139 ↓ low
3 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 1.9% 5 60.0% 43.9% 54.9% 49.8% 1349 ↑ top
4 Wind Allies 6 11.3% 34 60.3% 52.6% 54.7% 50.1% 1313
5 Fire Kongming 1 1.9% 6 66.7% 56.0% 53.0% 51.1% 1401 ↑ top
6 Water Genbu 4 7.5% 22 63.6% 63.5% 52.8% 54.2% 1344 ↑ top
7 Water Seiryuu 1 1.9% 6 50.0% 40.4% 52.5% 48.4% 1343 ↑ top
8 Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1 1.9% 6 50.0% 37.3% 52.3% 45.2% 1307
9 Water Dawn of Ashes 2 3.8% 12 62.5% 57.4% 52.1% 51.4% 1297
10 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 1.9% 6 75.0% 59.3% 52.1% 51.7% 1468 ↑ top
11 Wind Diana 1 1.9% 6 50.0% 47.5% 50.8% 49.4% 1445 ↑ top
12 Fire Exia 1 1.9% 6 41.7% 52.1% 50.4% 52.8% 1449 ↑ top
13 Wind Byakko 1 1.9% 6 50.0% 34.8% 50.4% 43.6% 1311
14 Water Fractal 9 17.0% 44 54.5% 51.3% 49.7% 48.7% 1298
15 Fire Suzaku 6 11.3% 28 44.6% 48.8% 49.1% 50.0% 1268
16 Wind Seiryuu 2 3.8% 12 45.8% 50.1% 48.8% 49.7% 1284
17 Wind Astra Cleric 2 3.8% 11 40.9% 53.9% 46.6% 51.0% 1222 ↓ low
18 Fire Tera Diao Chan 1 1.9% 6 16.7% 33.7% 43.6% 44.4% 1167 ↓ low
19 Fire Crux Mage 1 1.9% 5 40.0% 36.2% 43.2% 40.9% 1422 ↑ top
20 Fire Aggro 4 7.5% 20 35.0% 48.5% 42.8% 48.5% 1207 ↓ low
21 Water Tonoris 1 1.9% 6 33.3% 46.3% 42.0% 44.9% 1153 ↓ low
22 Water Tera Mage 1 1.9% 5 20.0% 35.6% 41.2% 41.5% 1355 ↑ top
23 Water Kongming 1 1.9% 6 16.7% 41.2% 39.0% 46.4% 957 ↓ low
24 Fire Slimes 1 1.9% 5 0.0% 30.8% 37.0% 41.8% 1074 ↓ low