Fire ExiaTier 3
at Collinsville Regionals
decks
2
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
2-7-2
overall winrate
27.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.6%
avg ELO -5.4 per match
expected value
43.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1269
· median 1269
· range 1202–1335
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1268
Q3 1432
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
