Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Collinsville Regionals
decks
5
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
14-18-3
overall winrate
44.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331
· median 1237
· range 1214–1632
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1268
Q3 1432
1689
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
60% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 65.6% | +10.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.6% | -11.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.1% | +5.3 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
