Wind ExiaTier 3
at Collinsville Regionals
decks
2
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
0-5-1
overall winrate
8.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.3%
avg ELO -6.8 per match
expected value
37.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1236
· median 1236
· range 1145–1327
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1268
Q3 1432
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.2% | -6.6 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Wind Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
