Wind Crux MageTier 3
at Collinsville Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.7% | -5.9 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Wind Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhou Yu, Enlightened Sage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three Visits | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Green Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |