Fire Luxem AssassinTier 3
at Collinsville Regionals
decks
3
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
7-10-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.5%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
41.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1262
· median 1175
· range 1171–1441
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1268
Q3 1432
1689
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.6% | -9.8 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
