Water AlliesTier 2
at Collinsville Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +6.5 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +6.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.9% | -8.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 52 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Longsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dian Wei, Valorant Fury | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |